COP16: Aligning NBSAPs and NDCs

I have never truly understood why climate change and loss of biodiversity are so siloed; in my eyes, everything is intertwined and you cannot develop a strategy for one without considering the other. Here at COP16, conversations have been revolving around National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs), which have been submitted by 35 Parties halfway through the conference. There have been many tools introduced at COP to help smaller Parties without as many resources to develop their NBSAPs and ensure that they are aligned with the KMGBF. For example, Women4Biodiversity developed a methodology and an indicator tool to calculate the gender-responsiveness of Parties' plans and policies.

When discussing the challenges of climate, nature and human rights, they need to be reframed as a single polycrisis. One cannot be solved alone, all three need to be addressed simultaneously in order to succeed. Unsurprisingly, when discussing the polycrisis, agroecology frequently comes up as part of the conversation. However, it is surprising that Parties rarely have agriculture and environment ministries that collaborate. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) have the most comprehensive food system plans and innovations, while more developed countries do not have comparable plans. Approximately 40% of food produced is lost or wasted, the difference being that food loss refers to the food that is lost through food production. Approximately 40% of habitable land is used for food production and 70% of freshwater withdrawals are used for food production, while 75% of food comes from 12 crops and 5 animals. Moreover, 31% of people are obese or overweight, demonstrating that they are eating the wrong foods, and 10% of people go hungry. Food systems are directly linked to the KMGBF, the Paris Agreement, and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2: Zero Hunger. Industrial food systems lead to ecosystem conversion and environmental degradation, which in turn lead to climate change.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is currently developing a tool called the Biodiversity Policy Analyzer that uses AI for the purpose of assisting Parties to ensure that their NBSAPs are properly aligned with the KMGBF. Countries such as Guyana, Panama and Thailand have piloted the project and have benefited from having the tool kickstart the development of their plans by indicating how highly they align with each of the 23 targets. This project is about using AI to develop policies and ensure they align with targets through the identification of actual gaps in specific components. The intention is, among other things, to help with project startup and provide a clear picture of where Parties are in terms of aligning. With this clearer picture, they can focus on targets flagged with low or medium alignment. This makes the task a lot more manageable, particularly for Parties with small teams.

The next evolution of this tool is to ensure that a Party's NBSAP and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from the Paris Agreement are aligned, their nature and climate agendas are consistent. A perfect time to begin work on this next evolution, and also update the current tool, is after the UNFCCC COP29 in Baku. Coming out of both conferences, texts will have evolved, and some national targets will require adjustment. Moreover, the Biodiversity Policy Analyzer is based on GPT-3.5, while GPT-5.0 is expected to be available at the end of the year or early next year. Many other NGOs have also been proposing tools of their own, such as the one proposed by W4B, so tools must be collaborative rather than obstructive. The Biodiversity Policy Analyzer needs to remain nimble and agile, and country context needs to be taken into consideration, as the tool currently is not sensitive enough to national and cultural differences. This is about ensuring that climate action and biodiversity frameworks do not take divergent courses.

24-11-05 Addition: As of November 1, 2024, 44 countries have submitted their NBSAPs and 119 have submitted targets. Brasil, with Belém as host for UNFCCC COP29, has positioned this event as the one that will align NBSAPs with NDCs, officially bringing climate and nature together. Although not officially a part of the "Rio Trio", the three COP presidencies of the Rio Convention, Brasil was recognized as its originator and essential in supporting the collaboration and coordinated efforts to halt climate change, biodiversity loss and desertification.