Recap: Aftermath of COP28 President's Statement

On December 3, the President of COP28, Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, was quoted in The Guardian as stating that there is no science behind the demand for the phasing out of fossil fuels. He continued on to add that the phasing out of fossil fuels would impede sustainable development “unless you want to take the world back into caves”. This is precisely the conflict of interest that has been plaguing the conference from the moment it was announced that he would be President. How can the head of one of the leading fossil fuel companies on the planet also be the head and spokesperson of the largest conference on climate change in the world?

The press conference with the COP28 Presidency the next morning focused on finance, the theme for the day, and the operationalization of the Loss & Damage Fund, with no reference to the President's self-interested statement. Prime Minister Mottley of Barbados discussed how funding is not the destination, climate action and mitigation are, which is why the funding is so urgent. The Climate Finance Framework was discussed, along with plans for implementation and the need for commitments from political leadership and multilateral development banks (MDB).

Gender was also touched upon, with Prime Minister Mottley mentioning that gender matters most at the individual level, and that women are the most heavily impacted by climate migration due to staying behind to care for families. She makes the only reference to fossil fuels in the entire press conference, saying, "if we're going to change how we live, and how we farm, and how we move, and all of the things about life that we've come to associate with the fossil fuel world, we're going to have to be able to do it at the level of families."

In a side event on International Law co-hosted by the Global Greens, along with Vanuatu, Stop Ecocide Foundation, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, Global Choices, and Youth for Ecocide Law, the phasing out of fossil fuels, the criminalization of ecocide and the melting of the Artic ice caps were discussed. Climate minister of Vanuatu, Ralph Regenvanu, and Chair of the Fossil Fuels Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative,Tzeporah Berman, both made passing jibes at the President's disingenuous statement, but it was another panelist who made an impassioned declaration in calling him out.

Vanessa Nakate was extremely powerful in her intervention, explaining her excitement at the start of COP with the operationalization of the Loss and Damage fund and the numerous pledges that were immediately made, then her dismay at the President's statement. This statement demonstrates who truly holds the power at COP, and that is the fossil fuel industry. She relates that fossil fuels account for more than 75% of the global greenhouse gas emissions and, without the complete phase out of fossil fuels, the world will not be able to meet its 1.5C target by 2030. We can celebrate the financing and pledges, but if we ignore the root cause, we are headed for failure. Instead of statistics, Nakate urged us to talk about the stories, the individuals who have been displaced, the individuals who have died from starvation. And now, the President of COP denies the science behind the phasing out of fossil fuels, proving that this is a space that has been sabotaged by the fossil fuel industry.

In a press conference held on December 5th, the President of COP28 attemped to walk back on his statement, saying he "very much believes and respects the science". He added further that everything the presidency has been working on, continues to work on, is focused on and centered around the science. He celebrated how the agenda was adopted in the first hour of the first day at COP, something that he had never seen before in his 12 years of attending previous COPs. This was immediately followed by the breakthrough agreement and operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund. Fifty oil and gas companies vowed to aim for zero methane emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 for the first time ever, and there was a global pledge to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency. The presidency also delivered on the first ever declarations on health and food systems.

The first question posed to the President was naturally on his comment that there was "no science" to support the call for the phasing out of fossil fuels and that to do so would "take the world back into caves." He claimed that the message that came out was due to confusion, misrepresentation and misinterpretation. "I'm an engineer by background. It's the science, and my respect to the science, and my passion about the science, and it's about my conviction to the science that have enabled me to progress in my career." The President stressed that he has said repeatedly that the phase down and phase out of fossil fuels is inevitable and necessary, and the transition needs to be orderly, fair, just, responsible and well-managed. He goes on further to say, "I am quite surprised at the constant attempt to undermine this message. I am quite surprised with the constant and repeated attempts to undermine the work of the COP28 presidency."

The Chair of the IPCC was also invited to the press conference and spoke of "the science" that has been called into question. "Looking at scenarios in which global warming is limited to 1.5 with no or little overshoot by 2050, fossil fuel use is greatly reduced and unabated coal use is completely phased out. Oil use by 2050 is reduced by 60% and natural gas use is reduced by 45%."

In the end, the President said that the timelines for phase down and phase out are for the parties to decide and that he, as the President, has repeatedly encouraged the parties to work with him on language that would be acceptable to all. He did not speak to his own opinions on what would be an acceptable timeline for fossil fuel phase out, nor did he explain the context in which he had spoken of "taking the world back to the caves."

On the same day, Urgewald eV gave a press conference, calling out the President and his oil and gas company, ADNOC, for gross conflict of interest. ADNOC has the highest production overshoot of any company in the world. Its new Hail and Gasha project will emit more than 20 times as much CO2 as it plans to store. This is an offshore project with an estimated lifetime emissions of 414 million tons of CO2 from its offshore gas, with a gas field that is partially under a UNESCO protected area. Globally there are over 900 legally protected areas, covering more than 5 million square kilometers, that have ongoing or planned fossil fuel extraction projects within their borders. The United Arab Emirates alone has eight protected areas with fossil fuel related activities within their borders, seven of which have active extractions. Many companies are involved in the extraction in protected areas, the number one being ADNOC, which owns about 30% of the reserves within protected areas.

Since the Paris Agreement, ADNOC has received $14.1 billion from US banks. "As long as fossil fuel expansion isn't stopped or there's no phase-out plan, ADNOC should be considered uninsurable, unbankable and uninvestable."

In the UAE, there are currently 17 oil and gas expansion projects, which could produce up to 12 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the near future. Just like every other oil and gas producing company on this planet, ADNOC has no intention of transforming its business model or of even reducing its dependency on fossil fuels. The company instead moves towards massively expanding its fossil fuel extraction, exports and petrochemical investments. There is no fossil free future with ADNOC.